Mortgage rates have dipped to a seven-week low, with Freddie Mac reporting the 30-year fixed averaging 6.43% at the start of July. To gauge what comes next, MarketWatch asked six industry professionals where rates are headed — and our founder and principal, Gloria Shulman, was among the experts featured.
The Near-Term Consensus: Stable, Not Falling
The prevailing view is that rates are more likely to hold steady than to fall meaningfully over the summer. Several of those surveyed described a higher-for-longer but range-bound environment — rates that fluctuate week to week without a sharp directional move, anchored by inflation that has yet to fully normalize and a Federal Reserve holding policy steady.
- NerdWallet’s Kate Wood sees rates as roughly stable in July and views a significant decline this month as unlikely.
- AD Mortgage’s Rich Hoffmann expects the 30-year fixed to stay largely unchanged, with any real move more probable in the fourth quarter.
- Motto Mortgage’s Vic Lombardo anticipates the mid-6% range with only modest week-to-week volatility.
- Zillow Home Loans economist Kara Ng forecasts rates near 6.4%–6.5% through summer, easing gradually toward about 6.2% by year-end — a drift lower, not a drop.
- UMB Bank’s Matt Locke cautions that if inflation reaccelerates, rates will likely climb in anticipation of the Fed’s response.
Gloria Shulman’s Perspective
Speaking to MarketWatch, Gloria pointed to geopolitics as the swing factor. Renewed stability, she noted, could allow rates to retrace toward this year’s earlier sub-6% lows, whereas the Middle East conflict has generated real inflationary pressure through energy markets. The recent softening in oil prices, in her view, is an encouraging signal for the broader rate picture.
Should You Lock In Now?
On timing, the panel was consistent: predicting short-term rate movements is extremely difficult. For buyers who are financially prepared and have found the right home, waiting for a marginal rate improvement can mean missing out on inventory or pricing — and refinancing remains an option if rates fall later. As the experts framed it, the better question is less whether rates will fall far enough, and more whether the monthly payment works for you today and whether the home fits your life for years to come.
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Source: Alisa Wolfson, “As mortgage rates hit a 7-week low, we asked 6 pros where rates are headed next”, MarketWatch, July 2, 2026.









